WTO hikes 2026 trade growth forecast on AI boom

The WTO on Thursday sharply raised its global trade growth forecast for 2026, with merchandise trade riding the AI boom and proving more resilient than expected amid the Middle East crisis. Thanks to supply chain adaptations and the surge in artificial intelligence investments, the World Trade Organization now projects 3.9 percent growth in the volume of merchandise trade this year, up from the 1.9 percent predicted in March. The WTO is forecasting 4.1 percent trade growth next year, up from the 2.6 percent predicted seven months ago. Global GDP is expected to grow by 2.6 percent this year and 2.9 percent in 2027, it added. "The numbers reflect trade resilience in action," said WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. "When disruptions strike, an integrated world economy and a rules-based trading system provide economies flexibility to keep essential products flowing to businesses and households that need them," she said. "Nevertheless, some have felt the shock more than others, and not everyone can access emerging opportunities like AI." The WTO said that while disruptions of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had reduced energy supplies and raised prices of key energy products and fertilisers, most economies outside of the region had remained resilient. It said supply chains had successfully adapted to disruptions...